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Prerequisites for the formation of a new global order of international security

Appearance of this article pursues two goals. The first one is to underline the idea of necessity to deprive Putin’s regime of the economic and political support from outside Russia in the standoff with the world antiwar coalition amid military aggression in Ukraine. This is a vital issue as far as Putin wielding absolute power in Russia regards independent and democratically reforming Ukraine as the wrong exemplar for Russians and consequently as the existential threat to his absolutism. Thus, the war is the last facility that may anchor his hope to preserve power. The second aspect lies in the plane of understanding that the kind of socio-political system build up in Russia does not have intrinsic to the democracy working mechanisms of checks, balances and democratic transformation of power. This means that the possible uncontrollable collapse of Putin’s regime under the pressure of social unrest due to the poverty and feasible military defeat is highly potential.

So, taking into consideration that Russia is a nuclear weapon country it seems obvious that dissolution of power vertical and disintegration of state shall have serious aftermath for all neighbor states and political amalgamations that have joint borders with Russia. Everyone should assess risks in advance about possible threats of country disintegration and loss control over the nuclear, chemical and biological weapon arsenal. In this connection, the prospective role and involvement of China as a potential member of future consultations that would tackle possible repercussions of highly feasible breakdown, dissolution and disintegration of power and state in Russia seems much more extensive and hopefully helpful.

When talking about breakdown, dissolution and disintegration of power and state in Russia we refer to the cases of civil war in Iraq in 2004 and civil war in Libya in 2014-2020 where the developments happened right in such sequence. Current socio-political regime built up in Russia looks a mirror reflection of the two mentioned. The fundamental feature of all these regimes is the existence of deep internal stratification of the society with intrinsic contradictions and confrontations that are not being resolved by democratic mechanism. Instead, they are being suppressed and remain dormant until the extreme boiling point will break out with social unrest. In this way, the preconditions for such unrest like poverty and feasible military defeat are already available. Beside that there also gradually appears overall perception in Russian society that Putin deceives Russians about the goals of this war. And that the real reason to start aggression against Ukraine was to prevent extension of civil society ideas among the countries on post-soviet space. This is for this reason that Putin, totally controlling media in Russia, has no other way but to hide the current state of affairs at the front and to impose a narrative about “Nazi regime” in Ukraine. Objective coverage of the warfare in Ukraine and real aims shall cause unrest and mean his prompt political and consequently physical death. Thereby, he is forced to desperately seek for human and material resources to continue the war to show Russians at least any positive result to be interpreted by propaganda as a victory. Unable to gain that Putin is stalemated to continue the war as long as possible and to mobilize Russian society for this purpose. Thus, those who say that sanctions do not work should understand that Putin has no choice but to continue the war. Otherwise, it will mean his death.

Based on understanding of current process in Russia and experience of two mentioned above cases we may predict the nearest developments in Russia with a high degree of probability. On this background countries like China that did not join antiwar coalition look beneficiaries among all other stakeholders in this standoff. Putin exhausted by sanctions and suffering military defeat under way in Ukraine is convulsively seeking at least some minimum financial inflows to support collapsing Russian economy and military aggression. In this situation these countries benefit from Putin’s stalemate and easily force Russia for concessions and discounts in bilateral trade and relations. Among other things this means knock-down energy and other commodity prices. Russian Federation ruled by Putin’s autocracy devoid of democratic mechanisms of checks and balances shall easily accept almost any condition and demand. Naturally these countries and primarily China may be willing that this situation to continue as long as possible in order to derive as much as possible. And the current political and diplomatic stance of neutrality that China and other have taken as of today proves this idea. This may slow down the process, but nevertheless the general tendency seems irreversible. There is no doubt that China administration perceives this trend. As well as that China is very likely to want to participate in the formation of the new postwar collective security order.

Also deserves a separate description the theme of the sentiment among the Russian elite. Russian ruling business, political and military circles are also discontented with reckless Putin’s standoff to the western society, with sanctions, shrunk revenues, lost business opportunities and country isolation. The threat of losing business assets in Russia for dissent is greater than ever. The regime does its best to suppress opposite points of view and to disguise real situation in economy, warfare casualties, real aims of aggression in Ukraine by controlling information environment inside Russia to restrain social unrest. Unlike ordinary people the elite entirely is fully aware of abovementioned.

The key takeaway of this article is that prompt and efficient strangulation of Russia with economic sanctions shall allow to contain rampant refugee crisis, food crisis, as well as the risk of the war escalating into the third world war. The necessity of such strangulation looks uncontested against the backdrop of the risk of sliding to the world war. Core role in this strangulation should belong to the countries of antiwar coalition in alliance with China. The reason for China to participate in this alliance is assumption of role of key stakeholder in the new postwar collective security order while Putin’s regime is coming to enormous defeat on diplomatic, economic, warfare level with subsequent geopolitical decline.

Ivan Brazhnik

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